MICRO NODETimestamp: August 7, 2024

HLT

Hilton Worldwide

Earnings/RevPAR

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

TravelHotelsLeisureConsumer

The Catalyst

“Hilton shares fell 7% after reporting quarterly results where domestic RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) growth slightly underwhelmed. Investors panicked over signs that the US luxury and corporate travel recovery was losing momentum amidst high interest rates. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 3.96% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $1.91 vs Est $1.86 (Surprise: 2.6882%)”

The Aftermath

“The domestic breather was completely offset by Hilton's aggressive international expansion and its massive high-margin licensing business. The company's industry-leading unit growth and loyalty program drove a multi-year recovery to record valuations.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., formerly Hilton Hotels Corporation, is an American multinational hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts.

Sector

CONSUMER CYCLICAL

Industry

LODGING

Market Cap

$73.44B

P/E Ratio

51.54

Beta

1.11

Div Yield

0.19%

52W High

$333.86

52W Low

$195.7

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-7.0%

Recovery Alpha

+58.6%

Reference Peak

$215

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$200

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-7.0%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+58.635%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

5.33%

Inflation

2.95%

Unemployment

4.20%

10Y Treasury

3.96%

2Y Treasury

4.00%

30Y Treasury

4.26%

CPI

314.80%

Earnings Catalyst

Quarterly Report Data

Q2 2024Reported Aug 7, 2024

Reported EPS

$1.91

Estimated EPS

$1.86

Surprise

+0.05

Surprise %

+2.7%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -7.0% from the local pre-event level.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

The domestic breather was completely offset by Hilton's aggressive international expansion and its massive high-margin licensing business.

Stage 03: Opportunity

The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 58.0% after a drawdown of about -7.0%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.