MICRO NODETimestamp: March 18, 2020

HLT

Hilton Worldwide

Travel Shutdown

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

HospitalityTravelBrand PowerResilience

The Catalyst

“Like Marriott, Hilton saw its business evaporate overnight. With debt on the balance sheet and no revenue, investors feared insolvency. The stock was halved as the world locked down. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 1.18%”

The Aftermath

“Hilton's loyalty program (Honors) kept customers engaged. The company continued to sign new development deals even during the pandemic. When travel returned, Hilton's efficient cost structure and new brand launches drove the stock to triple from the lows.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., formerly Hilton Hotels Corporation, is an American multinational hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts.

Sector

CONSUMER CYCLICAL

Industry

LODGING

Market Cap

$73.44B

P/E Ratio

51.54

Beta

1.11

Div Yield

0.19%

52W High

$333.86

52W Low

$195.7

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-61.9%

Recovery Alpha

+622.0%

Reference Peak

$115

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$43.76

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-61.9%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+622.029%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

0.25%

Inflation

1.23%

Unemployment

4.40%

10Y Treasury

1.18%

2Y Treasury

0.54%

30Y Treasury

1.77%

CPI

258.12%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -52.2% from the local pre-event level.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

Hilton's loyalty program (Honors) kept customers engaged.

Stage 03: Opportunity

The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 474.5% after a drawdown of about -52.2%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.