MICRO NODETimestamp: October 25, 2024

HCA

HCA Healthcare

Earnings Panic

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

HealthcareHospitalsNatural DisasterEarnings Dip

The Catalyst

“HCA Healthcare dropped 25% after the company warned that Hurricanes Helene and Milton would cause a significant Q4 profit headwind. Investors feared that storm-related disruptions and rising medical costs would impair earnings growth into 2025. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.25% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $4.88 vs Est $4.98 (Surprise: -2.008%)”

The Aftermath

“The hurricane impact was a non-recurring event that had no effect on HCA's underlying volume growth. As facilities reopened and demand for acute care services remained robust, HCA's industry-leading scale drove a fast recovery to multiple new record highs by early 2026.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

HCA Healthcare is an American for-profit operator of health care facilities that was founded in 1968. It is based in Nashville, Tennessee, and, as of May 2020, owns and operates 186 hospitals and approximately 2,000 sites of care, including surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care centers and physician clinics in 21 states and the United Kingdom.

Sector

HEALTHCARE

Industry

MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES

Market Cap

$119.03B

P/E Ratio

18.80

Beta

1.36

Div Yield

0.54%

52W High

$552.9

52W Low

$292.8

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-24.8%

Recovery Alpha

+72.4%

Reference Peak

$415

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$312

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-24.8%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+72.375%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

4.83%

Inflation

2.95%

Unemployment

4.10%

10Y Treasury

4.25%

2Y Treasury

4.11%

30Y Treasury

4.51%

CPI

315.66%

Earnings Catalyst

Quarterly Report Data

Q3 2024Reported Oct 25, 2024

Reported EPS

$4.88

Estimated EPS

$4.98

Surprise

-0.10

Surprise %

-2.0%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -24.8% from the local pre-event level.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

The hurricane impact was a non-recurring event that had no effect on HCA's underlying volume growth.

Stage 03: Opportunity

The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 70.6% after a drawdown of about -24.8%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.