BROS
Dutch Bros
Earnings Panic
The Catalyst
“Dutch Bros shares crashed over 20% after the drive-thru coffee chain issued full-year revenue guidance that slightly missed analyst estimates. Despite beating on both earnings and revenue for the quarter, the market panicked over a 'volatile consumer backdrop' and rising labor costs. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 3.96% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $0.19 vs Est $0.13 (Surprise: 46.1538%)”
The Aftermath
“The guidance proved to be extremely conservative. As Dutch Bros successfully scaled its shop footprint and its AI-driven loyalty program boosted same-store sales, the stock surged nearly 180% to hit record all-time highs of $86 by February 2025.”
Company Profile
Fundamental Overview (Current)
About
Dutch Bros Inc. operates and franchises convenience stores. The company is headquartered in Grants Pass, Oregon.
Sector
CONSUMER CYCLICAL
Industry
RESTAURANTS
Market Cap
$8.03B
P/E Ratio
76.27
Beta
2.55
Div Yield
—
52W High
$80.62
52W Low
$47.16
Hindsight Engine
Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters
Entry Delta
-22.5%
Recovery Alpha
+57.5%
Reference Peak
$40
Pre-Panic High
Panic Floor
$31
Moment of Capitulation
Drawdown Magnitude
-22.5%
Peak-to-Trough Delta
Alpha from Bottom
+57.452%
Total Return Delta
Macro Environment
Economic Indicators at Time of Event
Fed Funds Rate
5.33%
Inflation
2.95%
Unemployment
4.20%
10Y Treasury
3.96%
2Y Treasury
4.00%
30Y Treasury
4.26%
CPI
314.80%
Earnings Catalyst
Quarterly Report Data
Reported EPS
$0.19
Estimated EPS
$0.13
Surprise
+0.06
Surprise %
+46.2%
Anatomy of the Crash
Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points
Stage 01: The Fear
At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -22.5% from the local pre-event level.
Stage 02: The Turnaround
The guidance proved to be extremely conservative.
Stage 03: Opportunity
The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 57.5% after a drawdown of about -22.5%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.
Recovery Timeline
Temporal Velocity Analysis
Days to Absolute Bottom
1
Trading Days
Days to Full Recovery
92
Trading Days
Sentiment Signals
AI-Scored News During Panic Window
The Panic Files
Archived Media Narrative Context
InvestorPlace
Archived Intelligence
“Dutch Bros Shares Plunge 20% as Cautious Guidance Rattles Investors”
Bloomberg
Archived Intelligence
“Growth Reset: Dutch Bros Softens Outlook Amid Volatile Consumer Spending”
Seeking Alpha
Archived Intelligence
“Dutch Bros Hits Resistance: Why Wall Street is Fleeing Post-Earnings”
Insider Activity
Corporate Insider Transactions ±30 Days
Before Event
Net Shares
0
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
0
After Event
Net Shares
-1,056,680
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
27