MICRO NODETimestamp: August 8, 2024

MLM

Martin Marietta

Earnings/Guidance

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

ConstructionMaterialsAggregatesInfrastructure

The Catalyst

“Martin Marietta shares fell after reporting a 3% revenue decline and lowering its full-year EBITDA guidance, citing extremely wet weather in Texas and high interest rates. Investors panicked over the potential for a prolonged slowdown in private construction. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 3.99% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $4.76 vs Est $5.36 (Surprise: -11.194%)”

The Aftermath

“The weather-related impact was purely transitory, and the company maintained its record pricing power. As the Fed pivoted to rate cuts in late 2024, infrastructure demand re-accelerated, pushing the stock to new record ATHs past $700.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is an American-based company. The company is a supplier of aggregates and heavy building materials, with operations spanning 26 states, Canada and the Caribbean. In particular, Martin Marietta supplies the resources for roads, sidewalks and foundations.

Sector

BASIC MATERIALS

Industry

BUILDING MATERIALS

Market Cap

$41.37B

P/E Ratio

35.21

Beta

1.14

Div Yield

0.48%

52W High

$710.97

52W Low

$440.13

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-6.5%

Recovery Alpha

+18.3%

Reference Peak

$620

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$580

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-6.5%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+18.334%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

5.33%

Inflation

2.95%

Unemployment

4.20%

10Y Treasury

3.99%

2Y Treasury

4.04%

30Y Treasury

4.28%

CPI

314.80%

Earnings Catalyst

Quarterly Report Data

Q2 2024Reported Aug 8, 2024

Reported EPS

$4.76

Estimated EPS

$5.36

Surprise

-0.60

Surprise %

-11.2%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -6.5% from the local pre-event level.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

The weather-related impact was purely transitory, and the company maintained its record pricing power.

Stage 03: Opportunity

The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 22.1% after a drawdown of about -6.5%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.